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The pace of rate hikes will ease back from the 1 January reset as buyers seek to lock up capacity early after last year’s dislocated renewal.
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The ratings agency repeated its expectation that 10% of ratings in the (re)insurance sector will be affected by its new criteria.
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Mark Cloutier set out Aspen’s plans for top-line 2023 growth in the range of 10%, and a continued strategy of pursuing rate rather than exposure growth in property cat.
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The forecast included two intense hurricanes, six hurricanes and 12 tropical storms.
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Aon said it was “optimistic” that the market is now on a more stable footing following a turbulent 1.1.
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Reinsurers achieved an average ROE for 2022 of 5.2% – far below the cost of capital – in what Aon described as a “poor year for reinsurance sector earnings”.
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The broker’s international chairman said that without an influx of new capacity, the market will remain disciplined.
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S&P plans to publish a capital model prototype with its revised proposals for ratings methodologies, in its latest move to seek market feedback.
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Sources pointed to increased pressure to lift minimum rates on line above 2.5% on upper layers of wind programmes.
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S&P published its first consultation on proposed changes to its risk-based capital adequacy methodology in December 2021.
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Large visiting contingents from Florida to the Bermuda Risk Summit highlighted ongoing concerns around cat capacity availability.
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The MGA’s international platform hopes to bring in MGA underwriters looking for US expansion.