MAP 2791, Chubb 2488 and Ariel Re 1910 were the three most profitable non-life syndicates at Lloyd’s over the last decade, according to Insurance Insider analysis.
In the latest edition of our annual review of medium-term profitability and volatility, we have ranked syndicates by their average combined ratio for the 2014-23 period (weighted by annual GWP) and by the weighted standard deviation of their reported annual combined ratios during the same period.
The latter metric captures the variability of each syndicate’s underwriting returns from year to year – a proxy for volatility of performance.
(Below, you will also be able to find analysis of syndicates according to the same metrics over the last five years – to provide an alternate view of shorter-term performance.)
In total, 49 businesses (excluding life syndicates, reinsurance-to-close syndicates and SPAs) met the criteria for inclusion in this analysis.
To be included, syndicates had to have been trading consistently since the 2014 financial year and to have reported gross written premiums of at least £100mn in five or more of those 10 years. A number of syndicates meeting these criteria have changed ownership during this period; in such cases, they have been listed as affiliated to their new owner and asterisked.
The three top syndicates – MAP 2791, Chubb 2488 and Ariel Re 1910 – all recorded a weighted-average combined ratio of below 87% over the last decade, and each was more volatile than the median syndicate during this period.
On the whole, however, there was a moderate positive relationship between weighted-average combined ratio and weighted standard deviation across the 10-year dataset – a correlation coefficient of 0.47 – indicating that higher volatility has tended to co-exist with higher-than-average combined ratios over the past decade.
Ariel Re 1910 jumped into the top three in this year’s analysis after a stellar underwriting performance in 2023. The syndicate’s annual combined ratio improved to 48% from 106% year on year, moving it from the bottom quartile of non-life businesses at Lloyd’s into the top quartile.
Lancashire 3010 also entered the top 10 in its first year of eligibility for this analysis. (The syndicate has traded for more than 10 years, but only met the size threshold – five of 10 years at or above £100mn GWP – in 2023.)
Dropping out of the top 10 between last year’s analysis and this year’s were Ascot 1414 and Faraday 435, which respectively ranked 12th and 13th over the 2014-23 period.
MS Amlin 2001’s most recent set of underwriting results are significantly impacted by a pair of major legacy transactions. They reported a statutory combined ratio of 32% in 2023, but also disclosed a ‘normalised’ combined ratio for its continuing operations of 87%. Given the longer time period analysed here in order to capture a holistic view of syndicate performance, we have elected to include the statutory data for 2023 in our analysis rather than the normalised figure. This decision has the impact of improving MS Amlin 2001’s 10-year combined ratio, but also significantly increasing its measured volatility.
Five-year analysis
This year, for the first time, we have also re-performed our analysis over a five-year period – broadening the number of syndicates which are eligible, and providing an alternate view on shorter-term Lloyd’s performance.
(To be included, syndicates had to have traded consistently since 2019 and written at least £100mn of premium in three of those five years.)
In total, 58 businesses (excluding life syndicates, reinsurance-to-close syndicates and SPAs) met the criteria for inclusion in this shorter-term analysis.
(The nine syndicates which met these criteria, but which didn’t meet the criteria for the 10-year analysis above, were: Probitas 1492, Ive 2525, Ark 3902, Apollo 1971, Blenheim 5886, IQUW 1856, Brit 2988, GIC Re 1947 and Everest 2786.)
On the whole, a weaker relationship between high volatility and high combined ratios (a correlation coefficient of 0.31) was observed over the last five years than in the 10-year analysis above. This partly reflects the omission of the heavy cat loss years 2017 and 2018 from the dataset, and the shift towards a harder market in more recent years.
Nephila 2357, for instance, recorded the highest weighted standard deviation between 2019 and 2023 – but also the second-lowest weighted-average combined ratio.
With that said, the very top performers over this shorter period still tended to be more consistent syndicates: eight of the top 10 by weighted-average combined ratio were less volatile than the median Lloyd’s business, according to our analysis.
Five of the top 10 from our 10-year analysis also appeared in the top 10 of the five-year analysis: Lancashire 3010, Aegis 1225, MAP 2791, Ark 4020 and Chubb 2488.
Among the five others which made it into the five-year top 10, two syndicates were eligible for the 10-year analysis: Nephila 2357, which was the 30th most profitable over the last decade, and Cincinnati Global 318 (22nd).
Ive 2525 – which ranks third by profitability over the last five years – did not meet the size criteria for our 10-year analysis above, while Ark 3902 (8th) and Probitas 1492 (1st) have not been underwriting since 2014.
Probitas 1492 – which this publication has described in the past as an ‘old school “star underwriter” Lloyd’s business’ – has outperformed every other eligible syndicate by a considerable distance since 2019. Its weighted-average combined ratio over this period – 80% – is more than three full percentage points better than second place, and more than 15 better than the median syndicate.
Aviva – which had been looking to enter the Lloyd’s market for a number of years – announced the acquisition of Probitas for £242mn at the beginning of March 2024.
You can review a summary of selected 2023 performance measures for all Lloyd’s syndicates on our website here.