Claims and losses

The ICA will also meet Townsville residents whose flood claims remain open.

The carrier predicts fiscal first-half reserve releases equivalent to 1.3 percent of NEP.

Estimates from Aon, Munich Re, Swiss Re and Willis Re put Typhoon Hagibis lower than the modelled average, with Typhoon Faxai in line with expectations.

If early reporters Travelers and RLI are reliable cross-industry bellwethers, it looks like significantly lower overall catastrophe losses last year will flatter carriers’ Q4 and 2019 results and offset much of the damage from spiralling casualty claims.

The carrier said hailstorm losses would be high enough to meet the trigger on its treaty cover.

The broker estimates Hagibis losses at $8bn and Faxai claims at $7bn.

The fast-escalating claims costs come as insurers contend with hefty bushfire losses.

The carrier expects to book a Q4 P&C loss ratio of between 134 percent and 148 percent.

The broker’s estimate is more than a third higher than Munich Re's $52bn insured loss tally.

The Insurance Council of Australia has tracked A$407mn ($279mn) of claims from the storms, which may impact aggregate reinsurance covers.

Only a matter of months ago “social inflation” sounded slightly arcane. It has since become the industry’s main preoccupation.

Since December we have been stressing that the major fourth-quarter results story is likely to be reserve charges taken by carriers that write US casualty books.