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Guy Carpenter said personal-lines exposure would account for 85% of the aggregate loss.
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The industry loss number has increased threefold from an initial $5bn pick.
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In its latest report, the carrier cites the top 10 cyber incidents of 2024.
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The total includes fire and smoke damage plus living expenses for evacuees.
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Loss assessment is at an early stage, but senior sources suggested the claim could surpass $1bn.
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The fire started Wednesday morning and is currently 0% contained.
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Losses from the larger fire will amount to $20bn-$25bn, the modeller said.
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Gavin Jackson assumes responsibilities previously held by David Pigot, who retired recently.
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Disclosures show the insurer has roughly 4,300 homeowners’ policies in effect in fire-impacted zip codes.
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Most carriers paid more in homeowners’ claims than they collected in premiums.
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The broker said disaster data can attract more risk capital.
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The pool services a number of public authorities in California.