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The outlook is based on a strong pricing environment and higher interest rates, but the ratings agency warns of changing climate trends, and social and economic inflation.
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Intermediaries have highlighted the ‘evolution’ in reinsurance buying as hard market conditions are expected to continue.
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Hamilton Re said early signs point to 25%-30% rate rises on Japanese wind.
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The broker said that rates were falling but remained well above soft market levels.
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There has been no let-up in rate reductions so far this year, as fears mount about the profitability of the class.
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The market has quickly moved away from dramatic hardening in 2020 and 2021 following an influx of capacity.
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Evan Greenberg addressed questions about property cat reinsurance on a Q1 earnings call.
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This was the highest single-year increase for the US index since 2006.
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The executive noted that the quarter marked the 21st quarter of rate increases.
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Only D&O and workers’ compensation clients experienced price decreases during Q3, according to WTW.
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The broker said a dearth of IPOs had created a “buoyant environment”, with both start-ups and incumbents competing.
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The company will fund the raise from surpluses following bancassurance exits.
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Inflation and a full post-pandemic return to shipping are expected to impact future claims.
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The risk is increasing of some cedants ‘running naked’ in early January as the market faces a ‘horrendous bottleneck’ of negotiation ahead.
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While competition is picking up, a likely rise in claims during a recession is likely to prevent a return to a soft market.
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Rates began falling at the mid-year but loss activity has changed the mindset of underwriters.
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Rate rises were anticipated by brokers amid inflation and investment market volatility.
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Real non-life premiums are forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.
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In Q3, 46% of primary policies renewing with the same limit and deductible received a price decrease, while 16% received a price increase, according to Aon.
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Cyber saw the biggest increase in the quarter, while financial and professional lines saw a slight reduction.
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Winter storms in the first half of 2022 are expected to result in claims totalling EUR1.4bn.
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Reinsurers are demanding price increases and higher retentions as brokers warn cedants to be ‘realistic’.
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Reinsurers and brokers alike have warned of a rocky 1.1 renewal process ahead as the industry grapples with multiple issues including inflation, climate change and geopolitical uncertainty.
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Marsh CEO Martin South added that the broker expected to see property rates easing, but "the reverse is going to be true."