In times of plenty the reinsurance market seems like a vast fishing ground whose resources are virtually limitless. The old sea captain and his gnarled crew provision their boat and set sail for the fishing grounds. The water is boiling with sea life and they barely have to cast their nets before they come back to the surface brimming with a high quality catch.
The haul is landed and processed - the skipper gets paid at market and gives his crew their share. The crew head into town to celebrate in the way that seafarers know best.
Catch after golden catch comes in and pretty soon the word gets around the town. More boats and crews arrive. More bars, and other establishments, open up on the quay. In turn someone opens an ice plant, a processor and then a cannery and distribution centre.
An enterprising journalist starts a newspaper catering to the trade.
Some question where the abundant sea harvest has come from and wonder how it can be nurtured.
But there is no time, and anyway it's in no one's interests for any of this to stop - least of all the town authorities, which have just issued their first municipal bond to help pay for a new breakwater.
The price of fishing boats keeps hitting new record highs. The old captain and his gnarled crew sell up and decide to retire.
Then, imperceptibly at first, the catch peaks.
Boats have to go further and spend more on fuel to find fish. They start using smaller nets. These cost more and snag more easily. They are also less discriminating, trawling up less mature prey.
Boat prices also peak, but skilled captains' and crews's wages are still rising for now. The income is still there and the top skippers' skills are the difference between success and failure.
This state of affairs continues for a few seasons more, but eventually even the best captains can't find a catch. Fish stocks are collapsing and the cannery closes.
You can't give away a fishing boat or its gear - they're worth less than the price of a licence and a mooring fee.
Shipbreaking becomes a growth industry and the fleet dwindles. The town defaults on its municipal debt. The port becomes forlorn, crime skyrockets and the remaining bars on the quay are a no-go area for the demoralised local constabulary.
Happily, the net has not yet been invented that can empty the seas. The remaining fish carry on with life oblivious and now undisturbed. Within a few years their numbers have recovered.
The old captain and his crew decide to try their luck. They pick up a pretty old ship for next to nothing and set out to sea...
Tight lines in Monte Carlo this year...
To read the Day 1 issue please click here
Mark Geoghegan,
Editor, The Insurance Insider