Baden-Baden Newsletter 2014 Day 2
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Baden-Baden Newsletter 2014 Day 2

The best in our business used to be like a small-time card counters playing Blackjack at regional casinos.

It was easy to make a modest living by staying under the radar and not getting too greedy. It was almost like a hobby. For the secret few it was a nice little earner and nobody got hurt.

But then the high rollers caught on and started bankrolling syndicates. Now the hobbyists are heading over to Vegas every weekend and playing for high stakes with bigger pools of money.

It's very nice - the hotel suites are glamorous and the vintage champagne is perfectly chilled. If only it could go on forever. But the problem with multiplying the ante is that pretty soon the game gets ugly.

The best players have been playing it very cool. They've been aggressive with other people's cash, while cautious with their own. The problem is that they have been subtly changing the game and when they pull a big score it doesn't go unnoticed any more.

Some second- and third-tier players are getting bankrolled now and unknown whizzkids seem to be pitching up every day, their money clips freshly charged.

Up until now Casino security really hasn't been paying attention.

Senior management is still confident that its new-fangled technological systems are a substitute for good old fashioned legwork and observation of human nature.

But it will eventually catch on and when it does, it might just step out from behind the two-way mirror, come down to the dealing pits and crack a few skulls together, the old fashioned way.

Because Blackjack is looking tough, so some of the old hands are casting their eyes around at the other games on.

The trouble is that none of the other games let the punter in with a chance to even up the odds in the way vingt-et-un does.

Sometimes the best strategy is to cash in your chips and head for the exit. After all, if you're not in the room you can't be the chump. The smart money knows when to shrink.

The problem is that the lifestyle is addictive. The adrenaline rush, the thrill of the chase, not to mention the sumptuous suites with the panoramic views of the Strip, are all very hard to turn one's back on.

Dostoyevsky knew all about it. He wrote these words from The Gambler right here in Baden-Baden, not far from where you are sitting: "Even as I approach the gambling hall, as soon as I hear, two rooms away, the jingle of money poured out on the table, I almost go into convulsions."

Maybe we'll play just one more time.

The customer is king and this year he will get whatever he wants for his ceded hard currency. He will also get any new product off the ground he so wishes.

When the old games have gone bad any new shooting matches, even ones that haven't properly worked out their rules yet, are what everybody is looking for.

New premium has never been so highly prized.

This means some of the deals to be struck at this year's Baden-Baden Rendez-Vous will, with the passing of the seasons, be regarded as blinding once-in-a generation bargains.

Yet, when the day of reckoning comes, others will unfortunately be seen to have been low points - blemishes on hitherto unsullied reputations, blots on previously pristine copy books - ones to forget.

The real killer is that many of the most polarising and career-defining deals will be one and the same. What will be epoch-making is the side of the trade that is chosen.

And it's not just a matter of picking the winning trade, it's also important to pick the right counterparty. After all, there's no point making a big bet if it ends up breaking the

bank.

Mesdames et messieurs - faites vos jeux.

To read the second of our Baden-Baden newsletters for 2014, please click here

Mark Geoghegan,

Editor,

The Insurance Insider

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