As reinsurers continue to put out provisional loss estimates for Q3 cats, there is a growing recognition that 1 January will bring about a hardening in the US property treaty sector that could spread to other lines.
It is no surprise that underwriters have led the way in predicting a turn in the property market.
And in addition to public pronouncements from the likes of Hiscox, there was a united front from reinsurers at the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB)'s annual event last week that the time was right for change.
There is also a recognition from most reinsurance brokers that they will have to take a "realistic" approach at a renewal that could go down to the wire amid uncertainty over losses and increasing retro costs.
Of course, the quantum of price rises remains open to significant debate, with most underwriters acknowledging that it is too early to make broad statements as they await complete loss information from cedants for some of the cat events.
There is also the unknown quantity of the retro market and how it will react to significant losses that have locked up collateral.
That has led to a belief that collateralised retro and reinsurance writers will be seeking sharp price increases to target a higher expected return that will encourage investors to reload.
Although some reinsurers are more reliant on retro than others, the impact of higher retro costs is likely to further spur their own push for rate rises in property and beyond.
A senior US reinsurance executive told The Insurance Insider: "All of us are talking rate increases. On the retro side programmes are being talked about with substantial rate increases.
"So regardless of whether a reinsurance programme was affected I think there will be a chain effect - the cost of capital for reinsurers will go up and therefore they'll have to recoup that on the reinsurance pricing."
The view was echoed by a senior broking figure, who suggested it was "almost unimaginable" to think that the cost of reinsurance capital would not go up in property and other lines of business.
Another senior reinsurance executive claimed that previously benign cat activity meant the margin on property business had been subsidising the rest of the US book.
"It was not good margin in the US - it was good luck because of the lack of cats. People had great combined ratios in recent years on US property even though they knew they were below what they wanted for technical rate," he commented.
While industry leaders at CIAB's Insurance Leadership Forum in Colorado Springs were not eager to commit to predictions on how much rates would move, several highlighted the significant softening that has cut US property cat rates by as much as 45 percent since 2012.
One cat underwriter predicted it would take a 30-40 percent increase just to get back to 2013 or 2014 rate levels.
The CEO of a reinsurer added that where treaties had not been earning the cost of capital his company would target increases that would at least bridge that gap.
"That would take us back to, say, 2013 or 2014 levels, which is quite a long way to go, but that's what we are trying to do," he said.
There were calls for moderation, however, even among reinsurers, with some talking about increases in cat of 10 percent or less that would allow for a more sustained improvement in the economics of the business.
Broking sources also pointed to the potential for increased demand from cedants that had experienced losses that were "outside the pack".
In addition, they suggested that some buyers might look to structure their reinsurance programmes differently to better address a rise in the frequency of severe loss events.
The uncertainty over ultimate ceded losses has left many predicting a late and potentially challenging renewal.
One senior reinsurance broker said that reinsurers would be looking to get updated loss data as late as they possibly could before quoting renewals.
"That could leave a lot of people waiting to get data in and everyone running around in the last two to three weeks of December," the broker said.