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Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall in Cuba today before moving through the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico into tomorrow. -
The comps include 1896 (Category 3), 1921 (Category 3), 1944 (Category 2) and Hurricane Gladys in 1958 (Category 2).
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A landfall at Category 3 or 4 along the west coast of Florida later this week would be one of the more damaging scenarios for Ian.
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Cat 4 Hurricane Charley made landfall on Florida’s west coast in 2004, while Tarpon Springs (1921) was the last major storm to hit Tampa.
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Loss activity is escalating in the class of business, leading underwriters to question rate softening.
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In the more extreme of two scenarios, Ian could mimic 1921’s Tarpon Springs hurricane at a cost in the double-digit billions, BMS said.
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Fiona weakened to a tropical storm late last week but still brought torrential rain and high winds.
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The National Hurricane Center forecasts ‘considerable flooding’ in Florida later this week.
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The storm may be “much more powerful” than Hurricane Sandy, which hit the Northeast US in 2012, wrote BMS Group’s Andrew Siffert in a commentary.
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The Island is also on hurricane watch as the storm moves north
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Many storm losses would be the result of flood, which is not covered by the standard homeowners’ policy.
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The storm is not expected to be a threat to the order of Jebi or Hagibis.
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