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An estimated $6bn to $9bn will be ceded to the FHCF, and $6bn to $10bn to traditional reinsurance markets.
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Milton made landfall near Siesta Key yesterday, leaving 2.7 million homes without power.
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On Wednesday, the model had suggested a mean figure at $25.3bn.
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The hurricane is likely to prevent rate reductions in property cat in 2025.
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The event has spared (re)insurers the more extreme scenarios that were under discussion earlier this week.
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The cost to the NFIP is likely to be a “mid to high single-digit-billion impact”.
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The hurricane has destroyed hundreds of homes and left more than 2.7 million homes without power in Florida.
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Milton’s center is projected to make landfall near or just south of Tampa Bay.
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Contrary to expectations that US casualty would dominate the conversations, Milton took the spotlight.
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Florida concentrated property insurers are expected to face capital struggles.
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The NHC storm track predicts landfall below Sarasota, south of Tampa Bay.
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It also reported that severity increased by 17% in the same period.
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