Cargo theft losses double as thieves' strategic pivot sticks

Analysis summary

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The shift from grab-and-dash theft to cyber-enabled scams is driving costly losses.

The financial cost of cargo theft has been accelerating this year despite the number of incidents falling, as criminal groups move away from traditional smash-and-grab schemes and towards cyber-enabled strategies that make high-value shipments easier to target.

With these cyber-enabled strategies evolving as quickly and constantly as the technology it relies on, the insurance industry faces difficult questions over how best to manage and cover the complex risk, multiple industry sources tell Insurance Insider US.

Down, but up

There were 677 cargo theft incidents across the US and Canada in Q2, down 26% from Q2 2025, according to data from Verisk's CargoNet. Though fewer thefts would usually be a positive development, financial losses are moving in the opposite direction.

Estimated overall losses reached $304.6mn in Q2 2026, more than double the $135.7mn amount for Q2 2025. In the same period, the average stolen shipment value (i.e. cost per theft) jumped 177% to $564,009 from $203,586.

The trend is being driven by a shift from opportunistic theft and towards schemes that specifically target high-value shipments. Though overall thefts are declining, a greater portion are of the strategic, high-value-target variety, leading to greater financial losses.

In 2025, strategic cargo theft accounted for approximately 30% of all reported cargo theft incidents, according to Munich Re. That's up from 18% in 2024.

"Everyone talks about weather and geopolitical risks, but organized cargo theft may be one of the fastest-growing exposures in the supply chain," said Robert Cairo, US cargo and logistics practice leader for Lockton. Cairo added that, despite the growing risk, many companies still underestimate their exposure.

How it's done

Instead of relying on physical force or opportunistic theft of unattended vehicles, strategic cargo theft uses cyber intrusion as a gateway. It usually begins with digital impersonation, email compromise, or fraudulent platform activity.

Criminals create fake websites and spoofed emails to phish transport brokers and carriers. If a broker or carrier clicks on a malicious link, remote-access malware is installed on their software, giving the attackers access to the victim's systems.

Using the compromised accounts, the scammers post fake loads on trucking boards to lure other victims, accept real shipments, alter destinations, and divert or intercept shipments. Cargo is either resold on the black market or held at ransom.

Coverage gaps

The tactical shift toward cyber capabilities has made cargo theft harder to prevent and more costly, sources note. It has also exposed potential coverage caps and led to questions about how inland marine policies and cyber policies may respond to the same event.

"Most cargo policies incorporate cyber exclusions, including versions of LMA 5403, which could be interpreted as limiting coverage if a theft is deemed to arise from a cyber event," said Charles McCammon, director of marine risk and consulting and analytics at Willis Towers Watson. "This can create unexpected gaps when digital deception triggers a physical loss."

Although the LMA 5403 Marine Cyber Endorsement excludes losses "directly or indirectly caused by" a cyber event, the Marine Cargo Theft Confirmation Cyber Endorsement carves back cover for cyber-human adjacent thefts. The endorsement states that if a computer is used to facilitate access but physical removal of goods is still required to complete the theft, the exclusion will not apply.

Meanwhile, most standard cyber policies only cover funds, not physical property. However, this is not universal and some do include cover for physical goods. Either way, insureds could find themselves in a situation where the cyber carrier says it's a cargo claim, and the cargo insurer insists it's cyber.

Specific targets

Though the risk of strategic cargo theft is broadly increasing, some sectors may actually become less vulnerable to instances of theft given that more thieves are focusing on high-value freight, tightly controlled commodities, and goods with well-established resale markets, thereby ignoring less-desirable shipments.

Metals were a stand-out target in Q2 2026, according to Verisk CargoNet, with the number of thefts increasing by 48% year on year. Copper was the most frequently targeted metal, and thefts of aluminum, nickel, and tungsten also increased. The data also identified enterprise-grade computer equipment as a popular target, including cryptocurrency mining hardware.

Munich Re's data notes that North American cargo thefts were concentrated around footwear, electronics, and apparel. Pharmaceuticals were also disproportionately targeted.

Though the specific commodities identified were different, the pattern is the same. Theft activity is intentional rather than opportunistic, and it closely follows resale value and black-market demand.

For brokers and carriers, this serves as an important signpost as to which insureds may require greater risk mitigation measures and increased security.

No solution in sight

Though the insurance industry has already taken steps to address the growing underwriting risk by implementing higher deductibles and sub-limits on cargo theft, sources told Insurance Insider US that limited headway has been made in reducing the exposure itself.

"This has been - I'll use the word epidemic - for the past few years, so it's getting a lot of attention but it's just not getting a lot of solutions," said Rich Soja, global head of marine at Allianz.

"It's something we're working very hard on, I know the industry is working very hard on this, there's a buildup of momentum behind it as well, but it's definitely a concern for us moving forward," he continued. "That lack of solutions is definitely on my mind."

Though efforts to mitigate strategic cargo theft have been limited, Lockton's Cairo said he had already seen evidence of organizations prioritizing the issue.

"Many companies spent the last decade optimizing supply chains for efficiency. Increasingly, they're redesigning them for resilience," he told Insurance Insider US. "That's changing how risk is distributed and how marine insurers think about exposure."

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By Nicola Middlemiss
11 September, 2026

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