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Chaucer 1176 leads improved 2012 YoA forecast

Non-aligned Lloyd's syndicates reported an improved aggregate forecast for the 2012 year of account, according to updated results from Lloyd's members' agent Argenta.

Across all the syndicates with third-party capital, there was an overall increase of more than 1 percent in the profit forecast to a midpoint of just under 8 percent of capacity, Argenta said.

Lloyd's operates a three-year accounting system for syndicates using third-party capital and updates the forecasted results every quarter until the year of account closes.

Thirteen syndicates improved their forecasts, while a further 13 remained unchanged and only five lowered their forecast for 2012.

The Chaucer-managed nuclear risk Syndicate 1176 forecast an average of 52.5 percent profit on capacity of £31.7mn, up by 7.5 percentage points from an earlier forecast released on 31 March.

In the previous forecast, Chaucer had expected a profit of between 37.5 percent and 52.5 percent.

London-listed Hiscox also reported an improvement in its 2012 profit estimate for Syndicate 6104, up from an average of 25 percent by 5 percentage points on £38.7mn capacity.

For the 2012 year of account deterioration was limited, with the biggest faller being Sportscover's Syndicate 3334. It predicted a mid-point loss of 3.08 percent on £44.9mn capacity, marking a decline of 2.85 percentage points.

Back in March, the syndicate's 2011 year of account closed with a 12.31 percent loss on capacity of £35mn.

Despite an improved 2012 forecast, the 2013 year of account showed a decline in the aggregate midpoint for the syndicates, which fell by 0.2 percentage points from 4.7 percent of capacity to 4.5 percent.

Overall, 10 syndicates reduced their forecast, 13 remained unchanged and 10 improved their forecast at midpoint.

The syndicates reporting the greatest improvement were again Syndicate 1176 and Syndicate 6104, which both estimated a 5 percentage point increase in mid-point profit.

Asta-managed Dale Syndicate 2525 reported the largest drop, at a slight 0.99 percentage points.

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