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Syndicate forecasts updated

The outlook for the 2002 year of account for Syndicates 587, 1084 and 1096 has improved significantly, according to the latest forecasts from Chaucer Holdings.

The prognosis follows a week in which other Lloyd's insurers, including SVB, Catlin and Kiln released their updated forecasts for the 2002 and 2003 years of account.

In its statement, released on 28 May, Chaucer said Motor Syndicate 587's 2003 forecast was ahead of 2002 at the same stage and that the 2003 forecasts for Marine Syndicate 1084 and Non marine Syndicate 1096 were equal to 2002 at the same stage.

Ewen Gilmour, Chaucer CEO, commented: "I am pleased that Chaucer's positive response to the good market conditions in 2002 and 2003 continues to be rewarded by excellent syndicate forecasts. For the 2002 year of account, we have improved forecasts for our three principal syndicates."

2003

Syndicate

Sector

Capacity

Chaucer Share

Latest forecast

Previous forecast

587

Motor

£95.9m

66.4%

+10.0%-+15.0%

+7.5%-+15.0%

1084

Marine

£101.8m

58.2%

+7.5%-+15.0%

+7.5%-+15.0%

1096

Non-Marine

£190.0m

72.7%

+10.0%-+17.5%

+10.0%-+17.5%

1176

Nuclear

£12.5m

41.8%

+30.0%-+37.5%

+30.0%-+37.5%

 

2002

Syndicate

Sector 

Capacity 

Chaucer Share 

Latest forecast 

Previous forecast 

587

Motor

£90.0m 

65.5% 

+13.0%-+18.0% 

 +11.0%-+16.0%

1084

Marine 

£82.4m 

30.6% 

+11.5%-+16.5% 

+10.0%-+15.0% 

1096

Non-Marine 

£148.4m 

71.0% 

+17.5%-+22.5% 

+16.5%-+21.5% 

Also on 28 May SVB released updated forecasts for Syndicates 1007, 1241 and 2147 for the 2002 and 2003 years of account. It said Syndicates 1007 and 2147 showed strongly positive development for the 2003 year of account, and both Syndicate forecasts have been improved.

For the 2002 Year of Account, Syndicates 1007 and 2147 continue to develop well, SVB said. However, Syndicate 1241 requires further reserve strengthening, primarily in respect of discontinued Liability Reinsurance business, it added.

For 2004 it said trading conditions remain “highly encouraging”, with rate increases of over 10 percent in Specialty lines in the first four months of the year, and an average of nearly 5 percent across all classes.

Matthew Fosh, SVB CEO, commented: “SVB's current underwriting is good and getting better. Rating and terms and conditions in our core business remain attractive. We are still hampered by our inheritance. The ability of the poor underwriting of the soft market to hurt us remains and we are still committed to bearing down on these legacy issues. Across the business current underwriting is strong and good progress is being made.

2003

Syndicate

Capacity £mn

Owned by SVB %

Current forecast %

Previous forecast %

1007

151.0

79.1

10.0 - 17.5

7.5 - 15.0

2147

286.4

100.0

8.5 - 16.0

7.5 - 15.0

 

2002

Syndicate

Capacity £mn

Owned by SVB %

Current forecast %

Previous forecast %

1007

150.8

55.4

12.0 - 17.0

12.0 - 17.0

1241

168.9

99.7

(2.0) - 3.0

7.0 - 12.0

2147

154.0

100.0

9.0 - 14.0

9.0 - 14.0

Specialist insurer Kiln maintained its strong forecasts for 2002 and said it expected 2003 to continue to develop in line with 2002, a reflection of the current positive trading environment.

It said Syndicates 510, 557 and 807 showed “modest improvements” in forecasts for 2002.

2002 Account

Capacity

Forecast Range (% of capacity)

Previous forecast as at February 2004

Syndicate 510

£388m

18.9 to 13.9

18.5 to 13.5

Syndicate 557

£47m

41.3 to 36.3

39.5 to 34.5

Syndicate 807

£63m

18.7 to 13.7

18.6 to 13.6

Syndicate 308

£3m

5.6 to 2.6

10.5 to 5.5

 Meanwhile, recently floated insurer Catlin issued its first forecast for Syndicate 2003 in its 2003 year of account.

It said estimates for the 2002 year of account remained unchanged and that an initial estimate for the 2003 year of account suggested a 13.5 percent - 18.5 percent profit on capacity. It added, however, that the 2003 forecast “should be treated as preliminary as a considerable amount of business written in the 2003 year of account remains on risk”.

Year of account

Capacity (£m)

Current forecast (%)

Previous forecast (%)

2002

£274.6

10.0% - 15.0%

10.0% - 15.0%

2003

£500.0

13.5% - 18.5%

No previous forecast

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