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Moody’s predicts Lloyd’s profit of £1bn+

Days before Lloyd’s is due to publish its 2004 Global financial results, ratings agency Moody’s has predicted that Lloyd’s is likely to produce a profit of £1.2bn – the equivalent of 9 percent of capacity – this year.

However, the rating agency also warned that it was scaling back its forecasts for the 2002 year largely because of recent reserve deterioration and costs relating to run-off syndicates.

In recent months, a number of syndicates – including the defunct HIH backed Cotesworth syndicates – have revealed late deterioration on the 2002 underwriting year.

Moody’s has also lowered its forecast for the 2004 year of account to 8 percent of capacity – the equivalent of £1.2bn – because of the impact of the hurricane losses.

The rating agency is, however, maintaining its forecast of 15 percent for the 2003 underwriting year (£2.2bn) meaning that Lloyd’s should record profits totalling £6bn between 2002 and 2005.

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