There is a growing risk that the most recent accident years are under-reserved and developing negatively at European reinsurers, according to research from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW).
KBW analyst William Hawkins observed: "The soft market has
not ravaged reserves in a way we might have feared a few years
ago." However, he noted that KBW's analysis had shown two
classic symptoms of a cycle.
From a peak of 120 percent or higher around 1999-2001, ultimate
loss ratio estimates fell...
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