We who work in a highly cyclical global business should
recognise better than most that if you look carefully enough,
cycles can be deciphered in many unrelated subjects. Regulation is
clearly one of these.
And last week's action against Standard Chartered Bank by Ben
Lawsky, superintendent of the New York State Department of
Financial Services (DFS), would have been a rude awakening for
anyone still doubting whether the grand pendulum that spent most of
the 1980s and 1990s swinging towards deregulation and an
unobtrusive, apolitical principles-based approach had reversed back
towards re-regulation, prescription and political interventionism.
Lawksy has been a financial regulator for less than a year, but he
seems to have learned pretty fast on the job.
The DFS was formed last year from the merger of banking and
insurance supervisory departments, which gives the superintendent
far greater regulatory clout than your average insurance
commissioner.
Power and influence also tend to gravitate in the greatest quantity
towards those most prepared to exercise it.
The shades of a certain Mr Spitzer are everywhere. Lawsky is
clearly a highly ambitious, highly political public servant who is
not shy of rattling corporate cages and publicly challenging vested
interests.
His intervention may have taken some at the Securities and Exchange
Commission and US Department of Justice by surprise, but given our
industry's past experience of that former New York Attorney
General we should not have been caught napping.
As a prime regulator in the most influential state for financial
services within the world's largest insurance market, Mr Lawsky
is someone we will have to get used to dealing with directly.
Now would clearly be an opportune time to get to know one's New
York regulator a little better.
Meanwhile, increased regulatory intrusion is not just a New York
phenomenon. In London the Financial Services Authority (FSA) has
been baring its teeth far more aggressively since the financial
crisis began.
The fast-approaching advent of the new Prudential Regulation
Authority and Financial Conduct Authority - the "twin
peaks" UK financial regulators that will replace the FSA -
only doubles the likelihood that new incumbents, anxious to make
their marks, will play a greater amount of politics.
We should expect that, rather like a referee early on in a big
match, our new arbiters of prudence and conduct will award a series
of fouls with alarming strictness to make it clear to all the
players who is in charge.
Meanwhile, the ongoing Libor scandal, JP Morgan's whale and the
Mexican money laundering case at HSBC have only upped the stakes.
London's reputation as a trusted global financial centre is
under the spotlight and regulators will feel political pressure to
be seen to act decisively.
The Financial Services Bill is currently making its way through the
UK legislature and an opportunity is available to lawmakers to
codify a proportionate and reasonable approach to regulation and
supervision that will prevent our regulatory bodies from becoming
political platforms.
Offshore jurisdictions may have been in retreat since the global
financial crisis highlighted their disadvantages compared to
nations with larger economies and greater financial firepower, but
packs of Lawskys on both sides of the Atlantic would do much to
reverse this.
We are not currently optimistic that the temptation to score
short-term UK political points against a financial services sector
that has never been held in lower public esteem will not trump a
longer-term desire to get regulation right in London.
But the opportunity is clearly available for London to signal that
the high watermark for re-regulation has now been reached and to
act with proportion and impartiality at this crucial time.